000 02205cam a2200313u 4500
001 71833470
003 OCoLC
005 20250718133319.0
007 ta
008 130110s2007 nyua b 001 0 eng
010 _a2006051093
020 _a9781400063512 (acid-free paper)
020 _a1400063515 (acid-free paper)
040 _aDLC
_cDLC
_dBAKER
_dBTCTA
_dGK8
_dOCO
_dC#P
_dIXA
_dYDXCP
_dVP@
_dJQQ
_dHNW
_dTTQ
_dDMZ
_dVAM
_dMUQ
_dTDG
_dUBA
_dSMP
_dCQU
_dBNO
_dAJM
049 _aPPNN
092 _a003.54
_bTALEB
100 1 _aTaleb, Nassim.
_921970
245 1 4 _aThe black swan :
_bthe impact of the highly improbable /
_cNassim Nicholas Taleb.
250 _a1st ed.
260 _aNew York :
_bRandom House,
_cc2007.
300 _axxviii, 366 p. :
_bill. ;
_c25 cm.
504 _aIncludes bibliographical references (p. [331]-358) and index.
505 0 _aUmberto Eco's antilibrary, or how we seek validation. The apprenticeship of an empirical skeptic ; Yevgenia's black swan ; The speculator and the prostitute ; One thousand and one days, or how not to be a sucker ; Confirmation shmonfirmation! ; The narrative fallacy ; Living in the antechamber of hope ; Giacomo Casanova's unfailing luck : the problem of silent evidence ; The Ludic fallacy, or the uncertainty of the nerd -- We just can't predict. The scandal of prediction ; How to look for bird poop ; Epistemocracy, a dream ; Appelles the Painter, or what do you do if you cannot predict? -- Those gray swans of Extremistan. From Mediocristan to Extremistan and back ; The bell curve, that great intellectual fraud ; The aesthetics of randomness ; Locke's madmen, or bell curves in the wrong places ; The uncertainty of the phony -- The end. Half and half, or how to get even with the black swan -- Epilogue : Yevgenia's white swans.
520 _aExamines the role of the unexpected, discussing why improbable events are not anticipated or understood properly, and how humans rationalize the black swan phenomenon to make it appear less random.
650 0 _aUncertainty (Information theory)
_xSocial aspects.
_921971
650 0 _aForecasting.
_921972
650 7 _aTeoria da informaȯ̂ (aspectos sociais)
_2larpcal
_921973
942 _2ddc
_cBOOK
999 _c5580
_d5580