The the impact of the highly improbable Taleb, Nassim. creator text bibliography nyu New York Random House c2007 2007 1st ed. monographic eng

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xxviii, 366 p. : ill. ; 25 cm. Examines the role of the unexpected, discussing why improbable events are not anticipated or understood properly, and how humans rationalize the black swan phenomenon to make it appear less random. Umberto Eco's antilibrary, or how we seek validation. The apprenticeship of an empirical skeptic ; Yevgenia's black swan ; The speculator and the prostitute ; One thousand and one days, or how not to be a sucker ; Confirmation shmonfirmation! ; The narrative fallacy ; Living in the antechamber of hope ; Giacomo Casanova's unfailing luck : the problem of silent evidence ; The Ludic fallacy, or the uncertainty of the nerd -- We just can't predict. The scandal of prediction ; How to look for bird poop ; Epistemocracy, a dream ; Appelles the Painter, or what do you do if you cannot predict? -- Those gray swans of Extremistan. From Mediocristan to Extremistan and back ; The bell curve, that great intellectual fraud ; The aesthetics of randomness ; Locke's madmen, or bell curves in the wrong places ; The uncertainty of the phony -- The end. Half and half, or how to get even with the black swan -- Epilogue : Yevgenia's white swans. Nassim Nicholas Taleb. Includes bibliographical references (p. [331]-358) and index. Uncertainty (Information theory) Social aspects Forecasting Teoria da informaȯ̂ (aspectos sociais) 9781400063512 (acid-free paper) 1400063515 (acid-free paper) 2006051093 DLC 130110 20250718133319.0 71833470