02205cam a2200313u 4500 71833470 OCoLC 20250718133319.0 ta 130110s2007 nyua b 001 0 eng 2006051093 9781400063512 (acid-free paper) 1400063515 (acid-free paper) DLC DLC BAKER BTCTA GK8 OCO C#P IXA YDXCP VP@ JQQ HNW TTQ DMZ VAM MUQ TDG UBA SMP CQU BNO AJM PPNN 003.54 TALEB Taleb, Nassim. 21970 The black swan : the impact of the highly improbable / Nassim Nicholas Taleb. 1st ed. New York : Random House, c2007. xxviii, 366 p. : ill. ; 25 cm. Includes bibliographical references (p. [331]-358) and index. Umberto Eco's antilibrary, or how we seek validation. The apprenticeship of an empirical skeptic ; Yevgenia's black swan ; The speculator and the prostitute ; One thousand and one days, or how not to be a sucker ; Confirmation shmonfirmation! ; The narrative fallacy ; Living in the antechamber of hope ; Giacomo Casanova's unfailing luck : the problem of silent evidence ; The Ludic fallacy, or the uncertainty of the nerd -- We just can't predict. The scandal of prediction ; How to look for bird poop ; Epistemocracy, a dream ; Appelles the Painter, or what do you do if you cannot predict? -- Those gray swans of Extremistan. From Mediocristan to Extremistan and back ; The bell curve, that great intellectual fraud ; The aesthetics of randomness ; Locke's madmen, or bell curves in the wrong places ; The uncertainty of the phony -- The end. Half and half, or how to get even with the black swan -- Epilogue : Yevgenia's white swans. Examines the role of the unexpected, discussing why improbable events are not anticipated or understood properly, and how humans rationalize the black swan phenomenon to make it appear less random. Uncertainty (Information theory) Social aspects. 21971 Forecasting. 21972 Teoria da informaȯ̂ (aspectos sociais) larpcal 21973 ddc BOOK 5580 5580 0 0 ABELJ abelj NF 2016-10-26 0 003.54 TALE 33483 2016-10-26 17.00 2016-10-26 BOOK